From time to time I like to do a very curious exercise: I catch some relevant theories of famous gurus, authors or marketers formulated a few years ago, before the internet copied almost all the new theories, and the transfer to a current scenario.
Why do I do this? Two options:
– I’m a freak and I get bored a lot.
– I find that some of these theories can be applied to the internet and I learn from it (I’ll keep the second (I.e.).
WHAT IS THE THEORY OF BLACK SWANS?
This theory formulated by Nassim Nicholas Taleb tells us that a black swan “event” is one that appears by surprise and has a great impact on the ecosystem in which it moves . In order to be considered a black swan, you must:
- It is an unexpected fact for the observer.
- The event has a great impact.
- Once it happens, it rationalizes as if it could have happened.
- This theory can be applied to social, economic, political, and non-internet issues
THE THEORY OF BLACK SWANS APPLIED INTERNET
How do you think this theory can be applied to the internet world? Here are some examples:
- The “almost” Google monopoly in some countries.
- The irruption of Facebook and social networks.
- The emergence of smartphones and their massive use.
- The phenomenon of blogging around the world.
All this could be black swans have a great impact and seen with perspective it seems even logical that all this has happened.
KEY TO ACCOUNT IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF THIS THEORY
Looking at all this I would like to write down some keys that seem interesting to me:
High adaptability to big changes: Issues such as social networks are really new and instead there are a few professionals who seem to carry a lifetime with this. Why is this happening? Simply because there are “early adopters” who embrace as no one changes and make them play in their favor. “Black swans” can be great opportunities.
“Do not put all the eggs in the same basket”: since there is nothing sure, diversify your risks. For example: What happened when Google released its Panda or Penguin updates changing the entire SEO scenario? Very simple, many websites lost all their business built on effort for years. Those who worked other ways of income other than Google were saved from the “burning.”
Vision of the future: this is the most complicated but sometimes important changes can be predicted as long as we have the context well located.
As you can see, the future is uncertain and the “black swans” lurk to change the rules of the game and challenge the “status quo” of many companies. No one is safe from progress, the evolution of technology and “reasonable” fortuitous events.
Do you think it’s good to consider black swans on the internet?
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